Where and When does it Snow?

The climate of Australia is warming and snowfalls outside the Australian Alps are becoming fewer. Often the cold southerly changes bringing snow north of the Alps only make it as far as the Central Tablelands or the Barrington Tops. On other occasions snow falls in the southern part of the Northern Tablelands in places like Niangala, Hanging Rock and Walcha, but that's as far north as it reaches with both Armidale and Guyra missing out. More infrequently snow will fall over the entire tablelands through to the Queensland border with the higher areas around Guyra and Ebor receiving the heaviest falls.

In the early 1960s Armidale averaged almost three days with snow per year. Now that average has fallen to two days per year. As for settling falls of snow, in the early 1970s the average was about 1.5 settling falls per year. Now that average is down to less than one settling fall per year as shown in the following graph.

An analysis of temperatures recorded over the last 25 years at the present UNE/BOM weather station site shows that in the early 1980s maximum temperatures over the three winter months averaged 12 degrees. In 2005 that average had risen to 14 degrees. The number of cold wintry days with maximums of less than 10 degrees (usually caused by cold outbreaks from the south which sometimes bring snow) has dropped over the same period from 22 to just 9. That's a staggering amount! Of course 25 years is a relatively short time frame to examine climate change, but the trend is definitely there. Our winters aren't as cold as they were in the early 1980s.

An interesting side effect of our milder winter days is that we are now experiencing more cloudless nights which in turn is increasing the number of frosts. In 1981 the average annual number of frosts was 91. That average has now risen to 100 and average winter minimum temperatures are remaining around 0 degrees showing no significant trend since 1981.
 

Conditions Required for Snow to Fall

For snow to fall the following conditions are necessary.
A cold front or "cold outbreak" moving up from the south or south-west which will consist of very cold air from the south of the continent. An upper level pool of cold air is also often associated with the system. Obviously the system will need to have reasonable amounts of moisture to generate precipitation.
Winds must be from the west, south-west or south. Armidale sometimes experiences cold winter winds blowing from the east or south-east, but these winds never bring snow.
The air temperature must be 3 degrees or lower otherwise snowflakes will melt before reaching the ground. On some occasions milder conditions may precede the arrival of the cold air, but it does not necessarily have to "warm up before it can snow."
The temperature will usually drop to zero degrees or lower as snow starts falling.
If the ground is cold enough, snow will settle, usually on grass first, then cars, roofs, bare ground, and cement and bitumen last. Once there is a layer of snow on the ground further snow will build up on it quite quickly. Unfortunately snow usually does not fall continuously enough in Armidale for this build up to occur to more than a minor extent. Snow depths of more than two or three centimetres are rare.
 

Details of Snowfalls in Armidale since 1971

Below is a list of dates on which moderate or heavy snowfalls occurred in Armidale. Only falls which settled on the ground are recorded here. In the earlier years just the dates are given, but in the later years details are provided on individual falls.

1971 - August 15
1972 - July 8
1974 - July 8, August 15, 16
1975 - June 12, July 12, 13
1976 - Sept 9,10
1977 - June 30, July 1
1978 - May 12, June 14, 15, July 12
1979 - August 12, 13
1982 - June 20, 21
1984 - July 3, 4 - this was a major event, see separate account below.
1986 - July 9, August 5
1990 - June 28 - snow fell during early hours of morning and there was a light cover on the ground
            until 9am.
         - August 3 - moderate fall from 8am to 12 noon with cover on the ground about one
            cm deep. It melted quickly after 12 noon.
1994 - July 31 - snow and sleet fell intermittently in the early hours of the morning from around
            midnight and there was a good white cover on the ground at dawn, after which it slowly
            melted with a few patches still remaining in shaded areas at 10am.
1996 - July 13 - moderate fall from 12.00 to 1.20am approx. settling to a depth of 1 to 2 cms
            remaining on the ground till around 11am.
         - August 19 - snow started in the early morning and continued intermittently throughout the
            day. There was a light cover on the ground in early morning but  melted soon after 9am.
1998 - June 23 - 9.30am to 12 noon approx - slight snow showers with snow starting to settle on
            the ground briefly at 10.15am, but melted soon after. Mostly sago snow.
1999 - August 14 - moderate snow shower from 5.35 to 6pm which settled on the ground briefly.
2000 - July 27 - moderate snowfall from 8 to 8.30pm which settled to a depth of 2 to 4 cms. The
            snow remained on the ground until around 10am the next day.
2001 - August 26 - light continuous snow fell from 8 to 9.15pm and settled on the ground, but
            melted around two hours later.
2004 - July 17/18 - light snow from 9pm through to the early hours of the morning left a patchy
            white cover on the ground in the higher parts of the city. It had mostly melted by 11am.
2005 - June 23 - light showers of snow throughout the day until 4pm. There was a very patchy
            light cover on the ground in the early morning in some parts of the city which melted quickly.
2006 - No settling snowfalls.
2007 - No settling snowfalls.
 

The July 1984 Snowfall

Without a doubt the spectacular snowfalls in the New England region on July 3rd & 4th 1984 were the heaviest and most prolonged for many years. Some older residents claimed they were the best for at least 50 years.

An intense cold front pushed up from the south-west passing through Armidale at around 9am on Tuesday July 3rd bringing in its wake very cold air and sub-zero temperatures. Armidale's maximum temperature on Tuesday was 2.6 degrees, and the maximum on the 4th up to midnight on Wednesday was 1.4 degrees. These were record low maximums. The minimums were -0.8 degrees and -2.1 degrees respectively.

The snow started at around 9.30am on Tuesday as the temperature quickly dropped from 2.6 degrees to just below zero. The snow then continued without stopping for 33 hours until around 6.30pm the following day. The temperature remained below zero for this whole time allowing snow to settle and build up to a depth of several centimetres, particularly overnight on Tuesday. There was a good cover on the ground by late afternoon on Tuesday, and in the morning of Wednesday all roads in the city were covered. The New England Highway was blocked at the Devil's Pinch and several other locations north of Armidale, and it was also blocked to the south at the second Moonbi Hill. The railway line was also blocked north of Dumaresq. The outbreak was so intense that snowfalls extended over the border into south-east Queensland with snow falling in Toowoomba for the first time in 25 years.

Unfortunately for snow lovers, the 1984 event was the last such major snowfall in this region. All subsequent falls have been particularly mediocre in comparison, and as the climate slowly warms even these lighter falls are becoming less.

Future Snowfalls

With our climate continuing to warm it seems unlikely that any further major snowfalls will occur in our region. However with the ever increasing erratic nature of our weather systems, nothing can be ruled out with certainty. With the right conditions still occasionally occurring during the winter months, another good heavy snowfall is still possible. We'll just have to wait and hope!

© Article by Peter Burr.  Photographs by Col Mulquiney. 
Updated 20 November 2007.

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